Michael Shermer's Review of "Outliers". Here's an excerpt:
...Gladwell says, “are products of history and community, of opportunity and legacy. Their success is not exceptional or mysterious. It is grounded in a web of advantages and inheritances, some deserved, some not, some earned, some just plain lucky—but all critical to making them who they are.”
Well, yes and no. As Frank J. Sulloway, author of the comprehensive study of success Born to Rebel (Pantheon, 1996), told me: “Creative people are not just sitting around waiting for opportunities to come to them. They create their own opportunities. Charles Darwin was already planning a voyage of discovery to the Canary Islands, for example, when the position on the Beagle opened up. If the Beatles hadn’t gone to Hamburg they would have gotten their 10,000 hours somewhere else. What distinguishes Gates is that he has a really interesting creative mind, and he would have had that mind even without a computer terminal at his private school and hence would likely have found alternative ways to access programming tools.” And of course, Leopold Mozart’s son was a child prodigy and musical genius, not merely the beneficiary of cultural legacy.
Even the 10,000-hour rule isn’t just about skill mastery. According to Dean Keith Simonton, author of Origins of Genius (Oxford University Press, 1999), success includes a Darwinian process of variation and selection. Creative geniuses generate a massive variety of ideas from which they select only those most likely to survive and reproduce. The best predictor of winning a Nobel Prize in science, for example, is the rate of journal citation. As Simonton notes, “empirical studies have repeatedly shown that the single most powerful predictor of eminence within any creative domain is the sheer number of influential products an individual has given the world.”
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Thoughts About "Biologos"
PZ Myers has some harsh words about Francis Collins' "Biologos" website:
"I could hardly believe it when I saw it, but the BioLogos site uses the familiar creationist second law of thermodynamics argument.
Francis Collins has a Ph.D. in physical chemistry, and he should know very well what the meaning of entropy is (he should be far more familiar with the concept than a mere biologist like me should be), and he's using the concept of entropy to argue against natural causes in the expansion of the universe … and then he turns around and explains that it is not an obstacle to biological evolution."
Actually, Collins' claims are a little more modest than PZ might lead you to believe. Collins states:
"The Second Law of Thermodynamics also has interesting implications for cosmology, as it requires that universe began in a highly ordered state."
Even if I accept that the universe began in a highly ordered state, I don't think it would necessitate a creator. After all, if there were no time before the Big Bang (the jury is still out on this question), then there would have been no time in which entropy could increase.
However, the universe did not begin in a highly ordered way. According to Physicist Victor Stenger*, the universe began with the maximum amount of entropy that an object of its (then) size could have. As the universe expanded, the maximum possible entropy increased, and it did so quicker than the actual entropy of the universe, thus creating order.
*Pages 117-121, Victor Stenger, God: The Failed Hypothesis, Prometheus Books, 2007.
Here are my comments on other parts of the site that I looked at:
On Reconciling Adam and Eve with Evolution. This is a very thoughtful article which made some good points. I'm still not sure if Genesis can be reconciled with Science, but it is something to think about and is definitely recommended reading for those contemplating the question.
On the 'Fine-Tuning' Argument. These are Collins' thoughts on the Multiverse explanation of Fine-Tuning (his words are italics, my comments are not):
At first glance, the proposition of many other universes sounds impressively scientific. However, one must keep in mind that the likelihood of ever being able to observe evidence of another universe is extremely remote, since it is unlikely that information could ever pass from one universe to another.
I don't have the book with me right now, but I do recall reading in "The Cosmic Landscape" by Leonard Susskind that we might very well be able to discover some type of indirect evidence of other universes. Neverthless, there are hypotheses (such as Lee Smolin's black hole multiverse hypothesis) which explain a good bit of data besides fine-tuning and also make testable, falsifiable predictions. There'll be something on this in my upcoming book "Atheism and Naturalism".
Furthermore, there is no guarantee that the process which produces all of these universes would randomly set all the physical parameters in such a way that every possibility is realized. It could be that there are constraints on the characteristics of these many universes and that the production process itself would have to be fine-tuned in some way to guarantee that we get enough variety of universes to account for our remarkable cosmic home.
There are also problems with trying to argue that the universe is fine tuned in the first place. How do we know that other types of life aren't possible? There is an entire chapter dedicated to this in my upcoming book, and also in Victor Stenger's book God: The Failed Hypothesis.
"I could hardly believe it when I saw it, but the BioLogos site uses the familiar creationist second law of thermodynamics argument.
Francis Collins has a Ph.D. in physical chemistry, and he should know very well what the meaning of entropy is (he should be far more familiar with the concept than a mere biologist like me should be), and he's using the concept of entropy to argue against natural causes in the expansion of the universe … and then he turns around and explains that it is not an obstacle to biological evolution."
Actually, Collins' claims are a little more modest than PZ might lead you to believe. Collins states:
"The Second Law of Thermodynamics also has interesting implications for cosmology, as it requires that universe began in a highly ordered state."
Even if I accept that the universe began in a highly ordered state, I don't think it would necessitate a creator. After all, if there were no time before the Big Bang (the jury is still out on this question), then there would have been no time in which entropy could increase.
However, the universe did not begin in a highly ordered way. According to Physicist Victor Stenger*, the universe began with the maximum amount of entropy that an object of its (then) size could have. As the universe expanded, the maximum possible entropy increased, and it did so quicker than the actual entropy of the universe, thus creating order.
*Pages 117-121, Victor Stenger, God: The Failed Hypothesis, Prometheus Books, 2007.
Here are my comments on other parts of the site that I looked at:
On Reconciling Adam and Eve with Evolution. This is a very thoughtful article which made some good points. I'm still not sure if Genesis can be reconciled with Science, but it is something to think about and is definitely recommended reading for those contemplating the question.
On the 'Fine-Tuning' Argument. These are Collins' thoughts on the Multiverse explanation of Fine-Tuning (his words are italics, my comments are not):
At first glance, the proposition of many other universes sounds impressively scientific. However, one must keep in mind that the likelihood of ever being able to observe evidence of another universe is extremely remote, since it is unlikely that information could ever pass from one universe to another.
I don't have the book with me right now, but I do recall reading in "The Cosmic Landscape" by Leonard Susskind that we might very well be able to discover some type of indirect evidence of other universes. Neverthless, there are hypotheses (such as Lee Smolin's black hole multiverse hypothesis) which explain a good bit of data besides fine-tuning and also make testable, falsifiable predictions. There'll be something on this in my upcoming book "Atheism and Naturalism".
Furthermore, there is no guarantee that the process which produces all of these universes would randomly set all the physical parameters in such a way that every possibility is realized. It could be that there are constraints on the characteristics of these many universes and that the production process itself would have to be fine-tuned in some way to guarantee that we get enough variety of universes to account for our remarkable cosmic home.
There are also problems with trying to argue that the universe is fine tuned in the first place. How do we know that other types of life aren't possible? There is an entire chapter dedicated to this in my upcoming book, and also in Victor Stenger's book God: The Failed Hypothesis.
BioLogos
Francis Collins and some others have set up a website which defends belief in God and Evolutionary Theory (and attempts to show that the two are compatible). From what I've seen, this is definitely a great improvement over other apologetics websites (Answers in Genesis comes to mind). It's the more rational side of faith. I would recommend this to believers and athesits alike. Here's the link:
BioLogos
BioLogos
Some Dinosaurs Survived the Asteroid Impact
Via Live Science:
The great splat of an asteroid that might have wiped out the dinosaurs apparently didn't get all of them. New fossil evidence suggests some dinosaurs survived for up to half a million years after the impact in remote parts of New Mexico and Colorado.
The whole idea that a space rock destroyed the dinosaurs has become controversial in recent years. Many scientists now suspect other factors were involved, from increased volcanic activity to a changing climate. Either way, some 70 percent of life on Earth perished, and an asteroid impact almost surely played a role.
Scientists recently analyzed dinosaur bones found in the Ojo Alamo Sandstone in the San Juan Basin. Based on detailed chemical investigations of the bones, and evidence for the age of the rocks in which they are found, the researchers think some dinosaurs outlived the crash that occurred 65 million years ago and stuck around for a while.
"This is a controversial conclusion, and many paleontologists will remain skeptical," said David Polly, one of the editors of the journal Palaeontologia Electronica, in which the research was published today.
Lead researcher Jim Fassett of the U. S. Geological Survey in Santa Fe, New Mexico went to great lengths to establish when the bones originated.
"The great difficulty with this hypothesis — that these are the remains of dinosaurs that survived — is ruling out the possibility that the bones date from before the extinction," he said. "After being killed and deposited in sands and muds, it is possible for bones to be exhumed by rivers and then incorporated into younger rocks."
To try to eliminate that scenario, Fassett investigated the rocks surrounding the bones and studied date indicators, such as their magnetic polarity. He said the evidence "independently indicate[s] that they do indeed post-date the extinction."
He also found that the dinosaur bones from the Ojo Alamo Sandstone have distinctly different concentrations of rare earth metal elements than the deeper, older rocks that date from the time of the impact. This suggests that it's unlikely the bones originated in that older rock and were somehow relocated to the more recent, higher level of sediment.
Another piece of evidence seems to support the claim, too. The fossil remains include a group of 34 hadrosaur bones lying together, which Fassett said are "doubtless from a single animal." If the bones had been exhumed from the older rock by a river, they would have likely been scattered in several locations, and wouldn't be clustered together as they are.
Even if the dinosaur bones do turn out to belong to disaster survivors, there probably were very few of them compared to their population before the crash.
"One thing is certain," Polly said. "If dinosaurs did survive, they were not as widespread as they were before the end of the Cretaceous and did not persist for long."
The great splat of an asteroid that might have wiped out the dinosaurs apparently didn't get all of them. New fossil evidence suggests some dinosaurs survived for up to half a million years after the impact in remote parts of New Mexico and Colorado.
The whole idea that a space rock destroyed the dinosaurs has become controversial in recent years. Many scientists now suspect other factors were involved, from increased volcanic activity to a changing climate. Either way, some 70 percent of life on Earth perished, and an asteroid impact almost surely played a role.
Scientists recently analyzed dinosaur bones found in the Ojo Alamo Sandstone in the San Juan Basin. Based on detailed chemical investigations of the bones, and evidence for the age of the rocks in which they are found, the researchers think some dinosaurs outlived the crash that occurred 65 million years ago and stuck around for a while.
"This is a controversial conclusion, and many paleontologists will remain skeptical," said David Polly, one of the editors of the journal Palaeontologia Electronica, in which the research was published today.
Lead researcher Jim Fassett of the U. S. Geological Survey in Santa Fe, New Mexico went to great lengths to establish when the bones originated.
"The great difficulty with this hypothesis — that these are the remains of dinosaurs that survived — is ruling out the possibility that the bones date from before the extinction," he said. "After being killed and deposited in sands and muds, it is possible for bones to be exhumed by rivers and then incorporated into younger rocks."
To try to eliminate that scenario, Fassett investigated the rocks surrounding the bones and studied date indicators, such as their magnetic polarity. He said the evidence "independently indicate[s] that they do indeed post-date the extinction."
He also found that the dinosaur bones from the Ojo Alamo Sandstone have distinctly different concentrations of rare earth metal elements than the deeper, older rocks that date from the time of the impact. This suggests that it's unlikely the bones originated in that older rock and were somehow relocated to the more recent, higher level of sediment.
Another piece of evidence seems to support the claim, too. The fossil remains include a group of 34 hadrosaur bones lying together, which Fassett said are "doubtless from a single animal." If the bones had been exhumed from the older rock by a river, they would have likely been scattered in several locations, and wouldn't be clustered together as they are.
Even if the dinosaur bones do turn out to belong to disaster survivors, there probably were very few of them compared to their population before the crash.
"One thing is certain," Polly said. "If dinosaurs did survive, they were not as widespread as they were before the end of the Cretaceous and did not persist for long."
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Evaluating Christianity on why Arguments for the Resurrection of Jesus Fail
Read it here. It's brief but convincing. I will make similar points in my book (although I disagree that it is conceptually possible to estimate the odds of a miracle. I think we could estimate a frequency of miracles that would be beyond our ability to detect).
Convincing Fossil Evidence of Evolution
Please take a look at these links, even if you don't read the articles, look at the illustrations! The fossil evidence for evolution is quite devastating:
http://www.springerlink.com/content/k786p18g77j41370/fulltext.html
http://www.springerlink.com/content/501371w1h0h58385/fulltext.html
http://www.springerlink.com/content/66w3755838876571/fulltext.html
This journal, Evolution: Education and Outreach, is available online for free and is very informative. I highly recommend it.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/k786p18g77j41370/fulltext.html
http://www.springerlink.com/content/501371w1h0h58385/fulltext.html
http://www.springerlink.com/content/66w3755838876571/fulltext.html
This journal, Evolution: Education and Outreach, is available online for free and is very informative. I highly recommend it.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Proof of Alien Life
Cool article calculating the odds of alien life:
http://www.dbskeptic.com/2009/04/19/the-drake-equation/#more-955
The odds given are a little generous, though. For example, he estimates the odds of a civilization evolving on planets with intelligent life at 50%. I think that is way high. The evolution of intelligent life depends on a lot of unique evolutionary events:
http://aigbusted.blogspot.com/2008/09/glorious-contingency.html
My own speculation on this issue is that it is almost certain that bacteria (or some simple form of life) exists somewhere in the universe, and that complex life (things like plants and animals) probably exist elsewhere in the universe, and that it is possible that a few other civilizations exist.
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