Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Wanted: Bayesian Mentor

So, I've been doing a lot of reading and research lately for my blog series on the Resurrection Argument. So far I think I've done fine collecting the facts I need. I've outlined several hypotheses for explaining the "evidence" of the resurrection (i.e. the report of an empty tomb and reports of individual and mass hallucination) and of course have gathered plenty of information concerning the plausibility of these hypotheses.

But when it comes time to convert the facts into the valid numbers I should plug in to Bayes' Theorem, I feel a certain lack of confidence as to whether I'm using Bayes' Theorem correctly. This is probably because I, of course, have no formal training in using it. So I could use a little help: I'd like someone who knows Bayes' Theorem well to spend a little time exchanging a few emails in order to help me get the numbers right.

Leave a comment and let me know if you're interested or if you know anyone that would be.


eheffa said...

Perhaps you should email Richard Carrier? He's about to Publish a book on the subject & seems rather well-versed in how Bayes' Theorem applies to the sorts of inane assertions we read from the Apologists' camp.

See here for a recent interview regarding this question:


AIGBusted said...

Hi Evan,

Yes I've thought about that, but I wouldn't want to be a bother. I mean, he's coming out with a book soon and I'd say its not likely that he'd have ten or more hours over the next couple of weeks to help me iron out something that's probably not at the top of his priority list.

AIGBusted said...

On the other hand, if he volunteered to do it, I'd be more than happy to team up with him.

Jon said...

I could help, though I'm not as much of an expert as my brother. Basically I learned from him and have enough competence to work my way through things. My brother has posts at Debunking Christianity where he's actually doing the calculations. It's in Part One, Two, Three, and Four.